Elon Musk’s Bold Prediction: 10 Billion Humanoid Robots Could Outnumber Humans by 2040

Elon Musk has made yet another audacious prediction: by 2040, humanoid robots could surpass the human population, potentially outnumbering people worldwide. Musk shared his vision at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, stating that robots could soon become as common as humans. With the current global population at over 8 billion, this forecast implies that more than 10 billion robots could operate within the next two decades.

At the conference, Musk demonstrated Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robots, showcasing them performing basic tasks like handing out drinks and playing games. While these robots are currently controlled via teleoperation, Musk believes that advances in artificial intelligence will soon allow them to operate autonomously. He envisions a future where humanoid robots powered by AI handle various tasks, from companionship to manual labour, potentially driving economic growth without limits.

While the optimism around robots continues to grow, industry experts are divided on Musk’s forecast. Some believe the high production costs and limited functionality of humanoid robots will make it challenging for them to proliferate on the scale Musk predicts. Cognitive scientist Gary Marcus, a known critic of overhyped AI predictions, argued that robots are unlikely to reach such a high population. He compared the situation to car ownership: although the global population is over 8 billion, only around 1.5 billion cars are in use due to affordability constraints. Marcus suggests that Musk’s prediction is more speculative than achievable shortly.

Tesla has ambitious plans for its Optimus line of humanoid robots. Earlier this month, Tesla showcased robots performing various activities, from interacting with event guests to carrying heavy trays and climbing stairs. A limited number of these robots are used within Tesla’s facilities, but the company aims to ramp up production. By 2025, thousands of Optimus robots are expected to be deployed, with mass production slated to start by 2026. Musk anticipates that the Optimus robots will eventually be available for $20,000 to $30,000 per unit, making them affordable for a broader audience. He believes Optimus could become Tesla’s flagship product, possibly elevating the company’s valuation to a staggering $25 trillion.

Beyond the technical feats, Musk’s prediction hints at a more profound societal shift—a future where robots are woven into the fabric of daily life. However, he also acknowledged the potential for a “crisis of meaning” as robots take over tasks traditionally performed by humans. This scenario raises questions about the impact on employment and the social implications of a world heavily populated by humanoid machines.

With rapid advancements in AI-driven robotics and generative AI technologies, Musk’s vision is not without foundation. Companies worldwide are racing to develop more competent, more affordable robots, and generative AI is improving the efficiency and functionality of these machines. Yet, as Gary Marcus and others argue, the path to Musk’s vision is fraught with economic, ethical, and technological challenges.